Título:	Components of farm milk price behavior in Brazil from 2005 to 2020.
Autoria:	SIMÕES, A. R. P. NICHOLSON, C. F. CARVALHO, G. R.
Afiliação:	ANDRE ROZEMBERG PEIXOTO SIMÕES, Universidade Estadual de Mato Grosso do Sul; CHARLES FREDERICK NICHOLSON, University of Wisconsin; GLAUCO RODRIGUES CARVALHO, CNPGL.
Ano de publicação:	2023
Referência:	Revista Brasileira de Zootecnia, v. 52, e20220116, 2023.
Conteúdo:	The objective of this study was to assess behavior patterns in Brazilian farm milk prices. We employed a structural time series techniques model, the Unobserved Component Model (UCM), which is part of the family of State Space models, to assess the trend, seasonality, cyclical behavior, and impacts of exogenous regressors on aggregated farm milk price behavior in Brazil from January 2005 to December 2019. We tested five alternative models with different regressors using the monthly national average prices of milk paid to farmers. The fit of the models was assessed with Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion. Predictions were assessed by the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). All models demonstrated a high degree of accuracy. Trends, seasonality, and two cycles were statistically significant, with the trend and long-period cycle contributing the most to price variation. Exogenous factors such as feed cost and international dairy product prices also had significant positive effects on the level of Brazil?s farm milk prices. All models demonstrated a high degree of accuracy, which may indicate their usefulness for price forecasting and policy formulation.
Thesagro:	Produto Derivado do Leite Laticínio Preço Leite
Digital Object Identifier:	https://doi.org/10.37496/rbz5220220116
Tipo do material:	Artigo de periódico
Acesso:	openAccess
Aparece nas coleções:	Artigo em periódico indexado (CNPGL)