Title:	Potential impact of future climates on rice production in Ecuador determined using Kobayashi´s 'Very Simple Model'.
Authors:	PORTALANZA, D. HORGAN, F. G. POHLMANN, V. CUADRA, S. V. TORRES-ULLOA, M. ALAVA, E. FERRAZ, S. DURIGON, A.
Affiliation:	DIEGO PORTALANZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; FINBARR G. HORGAN, ECOLAVERNA INTEGRAL RESTORATION ECOLOGY, UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DEL MAULE, THE UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH; VALERIA POHLMANN, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE PELOTAS; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; MALENA TORRES-ULLOA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; EDUARDO ALAVA, ESCUELA SUPERIOR POLITÉCNICA DEL LITORAL; SIMONE FERRAZ, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA; ANGELICA DURIGON, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE SANTA MARIA.
Date Issued:	2022
Citation:	Agriculture, v. 12, n. 1, 1828, Nov. 2022.
Description:	Abstract: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is the main staple food of more than 50% of the world´s population. However, global production may need to increase by more than 70% before 2050 to meet global food requirements despite increasing challenges due to environmental degradation, a changing climate, and extreme weather events. Rice production in Ecuador, mainly concentrated in lowland tropical plains, declined in recent years. In this paper, we aim to calibrate and validate KobayashÍ´s 'Very Simple Model' (VSM) and, using downscaled corrected climate data, to quantify the potential impact of climate change on rice yields for Ecuador´s two main rice-growing provinces. The negative impact is expected to be highest (up to -67%; 2946 tons) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, with a lower impact under RCP 2.6 (-36%; 1650 tons) yield reduction in the Guayas province. A positive impact on yield is predicted for Los Ríos Province (up to 9%; 161 tons) under RCP 8.5. These different impacts indicate the utility of fine-scale analyses using simple models to make predictions that are relevant to regional production scenarios. Our prediction of possible changes in rice productivity can help policymakers define a variety of requirements to meet the demands of a changing climate.
Thesagro:	Oryza Sativa
NAL Thesaurus:	Rice Climate change
Keywords:	Modelagem agrícola Mudanças climáticas Agricultural modeling RCPs Yield gaps
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111828
Type of Material:	Artigo de periódico
Access:	openAccess
Appears in Collections:	Artigo em periódico indexado (CNPTIA)