Title:	Land use and regulating ecosystem services scenarios for the Brazilian Pantanal and its surroundings under different storylines of future regional development.
Authors:	GUERRA, A. RESENDE, F. BERGIER, I. FAIRBRASS, A. BERNARDINO, C. CENTURIÃO, D. A. S. BOLZAN, F. MARCEL, G. ROSA, I. M. D. SILVA, J. C. S. da GARCIA, L. C. LARCHER, L. OLIVEIRA, P. T. S. de CHIARAVALLOTI, R. M. ROSCOE, R. LOUZADA, R. SANTOS, S. TOMAS, W. M. NUNES, A. V. ROQUE, F. de O.
Affiliation:	ANGÉLICA GUERRA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL; FERNANDO RESENDE, INSTITUTO INTERNACIONAL PARA SUSTENTABILIDADE; IVAN BERGIER TAVARES DE LIMA, CNPTIA; ALISON FAIRBRASS, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON; CÁSSIO BERNARDINO, WORLD WILDLIFE FUND BRAZIL; DANIEL AMORIM SOUZA CENTURIÃO, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DO MATO GROSSO DO SUL; FÁBIO BOLZAN, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL; GUELLITY MARCEL, ECOSEV CONSULTORIA AMBIENTAL; ISABEL M. D. ROSA, BANGOR UNIVERSITY; JULIO CESAR SAMPAIO DA SILVA, DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR INTERNATIONALE ZUSAMMENARBEIT; LETÍCIA COUTO GARCIA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL; LETÍCIA LARCHER, INSTITUTO TERRA BRASILIS DE DESENVOLVIMENTO SOCIOAMBIENTAL; PAULO TARSO SANCHES DE OLIVEIRA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL; RAFAEL MORAIS CHIARAVALLOTI, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON; RENATO ROSCOE, INSTITUTO TAQUARI VIVO; RÔMULLO LOUZADA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL; SANDRA SANTOS, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DO RIO DE JANEIRO; WALFRIDO MORAES TOMAS, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DO RIO DE JANEIRO; ANDRÉ VALLE NUNES, KNOWLEDGE CENTRE ON BIODIVERSITY; FABIO DE OLIVEIRA ROQUE, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MATO GROSSO DO SUL.
Date Issued:	2025
Citation:	Conservation Science and Practice, 2025.
Description:	Abstract: The Pantanal, the largest worldwide continuous wetland, is considered a global hotspot of ecosystem services. Based on process‐based modeling, we assessed plausible scenarios of land use for the Brazilian Pantanal wetland and its surrounding highlands by the year 2050. The simulations indicate likely trajectories of land‐use change and the corresponding consequences for ecosystem services by looking specifically at soil loss, sediment yield, water quality, and carbon storage. The “Economy based on sustainable principles” scenario, in which landowners maintain native vegetation above Brazilian law requirements can lead to large reductions in soil losses and sediment yield (45%), whereas an increase in nutrients retention efficiency of soils (2%) and above‐ground carbon storage (7%) compared to the reference scenario of “Business as usual” (BAU). On the other hand, the scenario of “Accelerating anthropogenic changes” might lead to an increase in soil losses (8%) and sediment yield (11%), with a reduction in the efficiency of soil nutrients retention (3%) and carbon storage (15%). This study illustrates that the enhanced awareness of future potential impacts can pave the way for less harmful decisions in the mid‐term, toward the adoption of suitable strategies aligned with sustainable practices. Based on this, we discussed several initiatives that demonstrate the feasibility of moving toward most collective desirable scenarios.
Thesagro:	Uso da Terra Impacto Ambiental
NAL Thesaurus:	Pantanal Land use Land use change Ecosystem services Wetlands
Keywords:	Wetland Serviços ecossistêmicos
ISSN:	2578-4854
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70012
Notes:	Online first.
Type of Material:	Artigo de periódico
Access:	openAccess
Appears in Collections:	Artigo em periódico indexado (CNPTIA)