Título:	Trend analysis of the climate database used in agricultural climate risk zoning.
Autoria:	BENDER, F. D. MONTEIRO, J. E. B. de A. VICTORIA, D. de C. CUADRA, S. V. OLIVEIRA, A. F. de NAKAI, A. M. MACIEL, R. J. S.
Afiliação:	FABIANI DENISE BENDER; JOSE EDUARDO BOFFINO DE ALMEIDA MONTEIRO, CNPTIA; DANIEL DE CASTRO VICTORIA, CNPTIA; SANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIA; ARYEVERTON FORTES DE OLIVEIRA, PR; ALAN MASSARU NAKAI, CNPTIA; RENATO JOSE SANTOS MACIEL, CNPTIA.
Ano de publicação:	2025
Referência:	Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, v. 60, e04111, 2025.
Conteúdo:	Abstract – The objective of this work was to identify trends in the series of historical rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration, considering the meteorological database used in studies on agricultural climate risk zoning (ZARC). The daily meteorological databases used in ZARC were compiled from about 4,000 station points over a continuous period from 1984 to 2022. The trend analysis was performed using Mann-Kendall’s test and Sen’s slope estimator for the entire Brazilian territory. The results highlighted the emergence of marked spatial and temporal climate trends in Brazil, with a potential impact on agricultural risks. Although more than 79% sites have shown no significant rainfall trends, a decreasing pattern was observed mainly at the beginning of the rainy season in August-September over the central region of Brazil, as well as a decrease in rainfall in April and an increase in October, in the South of the coutry. This decline in the central region coincides with a significant rise of minimum/maximum temperatures and evapotranspiration, leading to an extension of the dry season. The spatialtemporal change in rainfall associated with an annual increase in temperature (5%) and evapotranspiration (10%), could significantly affect agricultural production across many grain-producing regions in Brazil, particularly in areas where more than one crop is grown per season.
Palavras-chave:	Variáveis climáticas Série histórica Teste de Mann-Kendall Estimador de declive de Sen Zoneamento de risco climático agrícola ZARC Banco de dados climáticos Climate variables Historical series Mann-Kendall’s test Sen’s slope estimator
ISSN:	1678-3921
Digital Object Identifier:	https://doi.org/10.1590/ S1678-3921.pab2025.v60.04111
Tipo do material:	Artigo de periódico
Acesso:	openAccess
Aparece nas coleções:	Artigo em periódico indexado (CNPTIA)