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dc.contributor.authorACUÑA, M. H. A.eng
dc.contributor.authorOLIVEIRA, L. C. deeng
dc.contributor.authorOLIVEIRA, M. V. N. d'eng
dc.contributor.authorSOUZA, M. B.eng
dc.contributor.authorCOSTA, C. A. F. daeng
dc.date.accessioned2019-10-21T18:09:27Z-
dc.date.available2019-10-21T18:09:27Z-
dc.date.created2019-10-21
dc.date.issued2019
dc.identifier.citationJournal of Agricultural Science, v. 11, n. 11, p. 172-184, 2019.eng
dc.identifier.issn1916-9752 (print) / 1916-9760 (online)eng
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1113288-
dc.descriptionThis study includes an economic analysis of the dynamics and prognosis of the forest structure of an area under sustainable forest management in the Amazon, in the primary production of tropical roundwood. It analyzes measurements taken between 2001 and 2011 and carries out forest forecasting for the period from 2001 to 2021 with the application of the Markov Matrix Chain. The variables measured by the probability matrix were transformed into equivalent annual rates and compared over the same period to the Brazilian macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product (GDP) and the real interest rate of primary roundwood production (TJLP). The valuation of tree density utilized a series of average prices of world imports and exports of roundwood. Between 2001 and 2011, the parameters of the forest dynamics without valuation were similar to the TJLP (1.4% per year) and, when valued, the rates were close to the GDP of 3.5% per year. The forecast from 2001 to 2021 indicates that unrated economic groups behave in a similar way to the TJLP of 1% per annum and to the GDP of 2.2% per year, except the recovery category, which has a negative rate of 1.9% per year. The monitoring of tropical forests allows the achievement of economic indexes capable of assessing the anthropic and natural impacts in short periods of analysis and projecting them over time on natural capital.eng
dc.language.isoengeng
dc.rightsopenAccesseng
dc.subjectManejo florestal sustentáveleng
dc.subjectSilvicultura sustentableeng
dc.subjectForest dynamicseng
dc.subjectDinámica forestaleng
dc.subjectCapital naturaleng
dc.subjectFloresta ombrófila abertaeng
dc.subjectModelos matemáticoseng
dc.subjectCadena de Márkoveng
dc.subjectFloresta Estadual do Antimary (AC)eng
dc.subjectBujari (AC)eng
dc.subjectAcreeng
dc.subjectSouthwestern Amazoneng
dc.subjectSudoeste da Amazôniaeng
dc.titleApplication of the Markov Chain in macroeconomic analysis of a managed forest in the Amazon.eng
dc.typeArtigo de periódicoeng
dc.date.updated2019-10-28T11:11:11Z
dc.subject.thesagroFloresta Tropicaleng
dc.subject.thesagroExploração Florestaleng
dc.subject.thesagroModelo Matemáticoeng
dc.subject.thesagroAnálise Econômicaeng
dc.subject.nalthesaurusMathematical modelseng
dc.subject.nalthesaurusEconomic analysiseng
dc.subject.nalthesaurusSustainable forestryeng
dc.subject.nalthesaurusNatural capitaleng
dc.subject.nalthesaurusMarkov chaineng
riaa.ainfo.id1113288eng
riaa.ainfo.lastupdate2019-10-28 -03:00:00
dc.identifier.doi10.5539/jas.v11n11p172eng
dc.contributor.institutionM. H. A. Acuña, REDE-BIONORTE, Universidade Federal do Acre (Ufac); LUIS CLAUDIO DE OLIVEIRA, CPAF-AC; MARCUS VINICIO NEVES D OLIVEIRA, CPAF-AC; M. B. Souza, REDE-BIONORTE, Universidade Federal do Acre; C. A. F. da Costa, REDE-BIONORTE, Universidade Federal do Acre.eng
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