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dc.contributor.authorKOTHARI, K.
dc.contributor.authorBATTISTI, R.
dc.contributor.authorBOOTE, K. J.
dc.contributor.authorARCHONTOULIS, S. V.
dc.contributor.authorCONFALONE, A.
dc.contributor.authorCONSTANTIN, J.
dc.contributor.authorCUADRA, S. V.
dc.contributor.authorDEBAEKE, P.
dc.contributor.authorFAYE, B.
dc.contributor.authorGRANT, B.
dc.contributor.authorHOOGENBOOM, G.
dc.contributor.authorJING, Q.
dc.contributor.authorVAN DER LAAN, M.
dc.contributor.authorSILVA, F. A. M. da
dc.contributor.authorMARIN, F. R.
dc.contributor.authorNEHBANDANI, A.
dc.contributor.authorNENDEL, C.
dc.contributor.authorPURCELL, L. C.
dc.contributor.authorQIAN, B.
dc.contributor.authorRUANE, A. C.
dc.contributor.authorSCHOVING, C.
dc.contributor.authorSILVA, E. H. F. M.
dc.contributor.authorSMITH, W.
dc.contributor.authorSOLTANI, A.
dc.contributor.authorSRIVASTAVA, A.
dc.contributor.authorVIEIRA JÚNIOR, N. A.
dc.contributor.authorSLONE, S.
dc.contributor.authorSALMERÓN, M.
dc.date.accessioned2022-02-25T18:00:30Z-
dc.date.available2022-02-25T18:00:30Z-
dc.date.created2022-02-25
dc.date.issued2022
dc.identifier.citationEuropean Journal of Agronomy, v. 135, 126482, Apr. 2022.
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1140426-
dc.descriptionAbstract. An accurate estimation of crop yield under climate change scenarios is essential to quantify our ability to feed a growing population and develop agronomic adaptations to meet future food demand. A coordinated evaluation of yield simulations from process-based eco-physiological models for climate change impact assessment is still missing for soybean, the most widely grown grain legume and the main source of protein in our food chain. In this first soybean multi-model study, we used ten prominent models capable of simulating soybean yield under varying temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] to quantify the uncertainty in soybean yield simulations in response to these factors. Models were first parametrized with high quality measured data from five contrasting environments. We found considerable variability among models in simulated yield responses to increasing temperature and [CO2]. For example, under a + 3 °C temperature rise in our coolest location in Argentina, some models simulated that yield would reduce as much as 24%, while others simulated yield increases up to 29%. In our warmest location in Brazil, the models simulated a yield reduction ranging from a 38% decrease under + 3 °C temperature rise to no effect on yield. Similarly, when increasing [CO2] from 360 to 540 ppm, the models simulated a yield increase that ranged from 6% to 31%. Model calibration did not reduce variability across models but had an unexpected effect on modifying yield responses to temperature for some of the models. The high uncertainty in model responses indicates the limited applicability of individual models for climate change food projections. However, the ensemble mean of simulations across models was an effective tool to reduce the high uncertainty in soybean yield simulations associated with individual models and their parametrization. Ensemble, ensemble mean yield responses to temperature and [CO2] were similar to those reported from the literature. Our study is the first demonstration of the benefits achieved from using an ensemble of grain legume models for climate change food projections, and highlights that further soybean model development with experiments under elevated [CO2] and temperature is needed to reduce the uncertainty from the individual models.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.subjectImpacto das mudanças climáticas
dc.subjectModelos de soja
dc.subjectAgricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project
dc.subjectAgMIP
dc.subjectModel ensemble
dc.subjectModel calibration
dc.subjectTemperature Atmospheric CO2 concentration
dc.subjectLegume model
dc.titleAre soybean models ready for climate change food impact assessments?
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
dc.subject.thesagroSoja
dc.subject.thesagroGlycine Max
dc.subject.thesagroTemperatura
dc.subject.nalthesaurusModels
dc.subject.nalthesaurusSoybeans
dc.subject.nalthesaurusTemperature
riaa.ainfo.id1140426
riaa.ainfo.lastupdate2022-02-25
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2022.126482
dc.contributor.institutionKRITIKA KOTHARI, UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY
dc.contributor.institutionRAFAEL BATTISTI, UFGeng
dc.contributor.institutionKENNETH J. BOOTE, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDAeng
dc.contributor.institutionSOTIRIOS V. ARCHONTOULIS, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITYeng
dc.contributor.institutionADRIANA CONFALONE, UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DEL CENTRO DE LA PROVINCIA DE BUENOS AIRESeng
dc.contributor.institutionJULIE CONSTANTIN, UNIVERSITÉ DE TOULOUSEeng
dc.contributor.institutionSANTIAGO VIANNA CUADRA, CNPTIAeng
dc.contributor.institutionPHILIPPE DEBAEKE, UNIVERSITÉ DE TOULOUSEeng
dc.contributor.institutionBABACAR FAYE, INSTITUT DE RECHERCHE POUR LE D ́EVELOPPEMENT (IRD) ESPACE-DEVeng
dc.contributor.institutionBRIAN GRANT, AGRICULTURE AND AGRI-FOOD CANADAeng
dc.contributor.institutionGERRIT HOOGENBOOM, UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDAeng
dc.contributor.institutionQI JING, AGRICULTURE AND AGRI-FOOD CANADAeng
dc.contributor.institutionMICHAEL VAN DER LAAN, UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIAeng
dc.contributor.institutionFERNANDO ANTONIO MACENA DA SILVA, CPACeng
dc.contributor.institutionFÁBIO RICARDO MARIN, ESALQ/USPeng
dc.contributor.institutionALIREZA NEHBANDANI, GORGAN UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCEeng
dc.contributor.institutionCLAAS NENDEL, University of PotsdaM, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape ResearcHeng
dc.contributor.institutionLARRY C. PURCELL, UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSASeng
dc.contributor.institutionBUDONG QIAN, AGRICULTURE AND AGRI-FOOD CANADAeng
dc.contributor.institutionALEX C. RUANE, NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIESeng
dc.contributor.institutionCÉLINE SCHOVING, UNIVERSITÉ DE TOULOUSE, TERRES INOVIAeng
dc.contributor.institutionEVANDRO H. F. M. SILVA, ESALQ/USPeng
dc.contributor.institutionWARD SMITH, AGRICULTURE AND AGRI-FOOD CANADAeng
dc.contributor.institutionAFSHIN SOLTANI, GORGAN UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RE-SOURCESeng
dc.contributor.institutionAMIT SRIVASTAVA, UNIVERSITY OF BONNeng
dc.contributor.institutionNILSON A. VIEIRA JÚNIOR, ESALQ/USPeng
dc.contributor.institutionSTACEY SLONE, UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKYeng
dc.contributor.institutionMONTSERRAT SALMERÓN, UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY.eng
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