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dc.contributor.authorNORONHA, M. V. O.
dc.contributor.authorSILVA, J. P.
dc.contributor.authorPLACHI, M. A.
dc.contributor.authorSANTANA, D. M. de
dc.contributor.authorUMBURANAS, R. C.
dc.contributor.authorFAVARIN, J. L.
dc.contributor.authorROMANI, L. A. S.
dc.contributor.authorMASSRUHÁ, S. M. F. S.
dc.contributor.authorDOURADO NETO, D.
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-22T11:49:10Z-
dc.date.available2026-06-22T11:49:10Z-
dc.date.created2026-06-22
dc.date.issued2026
dc.identifier.citationAgronomy Journal, v. 118, n. 3, e70458, May/June 2026.
dc.identifier.issn1435-0645
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1187711-
dc.descriptionCoffee yield is influenced by climatic factors, with temperature and water availability being key determinants. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climate variability on the yield of Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) cultivars across phenological phases and to validate an agrometeorological model at local and regional scales using yield–climate time-series data from the Volcanic Region of Poços de Caldas. The Arabica coffee cultivarsMundoNovo 376/4, Catuaí IAC 144, and BourbonVermelho were evaluated across four phenological phases. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were applied for each phenological phase and production year between yield and climatic variables, along with the Mann–Kendall test to detect monotonic trends in climatic data. The agrometeorological model was evaluated at different analytical scales and under distinct cultivars and yield scenarios, using historical data from 2011 to 2024. The grain-filling phase was the most sensitive to increasing temperature, while flowering showed a risingwarming trend, increasing its vulnerability. Cultivars differed in their thermal and water tolerance, with Bourbon Vermelho showing high vegetative resilience but marked reproductive susceptibility. The model performed well at the regional scale (R2 = 0.93; RMSE = 453 kg ha−1), particularly within the Volcanic Region, but exhibited limited accuracy at the plot scale due to local variability. Estimated yield losses were mainly associated with water deficit, followed by frost events, while thermal penalties were minimal. These results highlight the need to improve climate-resilience strategies and mitigate the impacts of climate change on coffee cultivation.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.subjectModelo agrometeorológico
dc.subjectSensibilidade térmica
dc.subjectVariabilidade climática
dc.subjectThermal sensitivity
dc.subjectClimatic variability
dc.subjectAgrometeorological model
dc.titleThermal sensitivity and yield of Arabica coffee under climatic variability.
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
dc.subject.thesagroCoffea Arábica
dc.subject.thesagroCafé
dc.subject.thesagroRendimento
dc.subject.nalthesaurusCrop models
dc.subject.nalthesaurusCrop yield
riaa.ainfo.id1187711
riaa.ainfo.lastupdate2026-06-22
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.70458
dc.contributor.institutionMARCUS VINICIUS OLIVEIRA NORONHA, UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO; JOÃO PAULO SILVA; MARCOS AUGUSTO PLACHI, FAZENDA BELA VISTA DA FUMAÇA; DOUGLAS MARTINS DE SANTANA, UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO; RENAN CALDAS UMBURANAS, UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO; JOSÉ LAÉRCIO FAVARIN, UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO; LUCIANA ALVIM SANTOS ROMANI, CNPTIA; SILVIA MARIA FONSECA SILVEIRA MASSRUHÁ, PR; DURVAL DOURADO NETO, UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO.
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