Title:	Estimating surplus pastureland for bio-based sustainable aviation fuels production in Brazil for 2050.
Authors:	AMARAL, D. R. do SCHAEFFER, R. NOVAES, R. M. L. PORTUGAL-PEREIRA, J.
Affiliation:	DIEGO RIBEIRO DO AMARAL, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO DE JANEIRO; ROBERTO SCHAEFFER, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO DE JANEIRO; RENAN MILAGRES LAGE NOVAES, CNPMA; JOANA PORTUGAL-PEREIRA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO DE JANEIRO.
Date Issued:	2024
Citation:	In: LATIN AMERICAN ENERGY ECONOMICS MEETING, 9., 2024, Rio de Janeiro. Proceedings... Rio de Janeiro: ALADEE; IAEE; ABEE; 2024. ELAEE.
Description:	Abstract: This study estimates the release of pastureland for bioSAF production in Brazil by 2050 and the LUC emissions for different regions in the country. Using projected demand for agricultural commodities (Fiorini et al., 2023) together with productivity data (IBGE, 2022), the total agricultural land for Brazil in 2050 was estimated. By designing scenarios of an improved cattle stocking density from 1.4 animal/ha to 2.0 animal/ha, pasture surplus area was estimated for agricultural expansion and for energy crops, without the need for native vegetation suppression. With the available land, bioSAF production was estimated using data from CORSIA (2022) and CONAB (2023). Direct LUC emissions were calculated using BRLUC data (2021). Results show that without raising the stocking density for cattle, there will be no pasture surplus area available for bioenergy. Considering a stocking density of 2.0 animal/ha, pasture surplus area for biofuels varies between 2.6 and 27 Mha, depending on how productive food crops are. If sugarcane is cultivated for AtJ in this surplus area, it can deliver between 260 and 2,676 PJ, meeting at least 49% of projected demand for jet fuel. Considering carbon stocks for planted pasture and sugarcane in the most likely regions to have such expansion, LUC emissions range from -3 to 6 gCO2/MJ but could be larger in other regions. Producing low carbon AtJ from Brazilian sugarcane to meet the country’s jet fuel demand by 2050 is possible but requires coordinated actions to improve both cattle and food systems productivity.
Thesagro:	Cana de Açúcar Biocombustível Uso da Terra
NAL Thesaurus:	Sugarcane Biofuels Land use change Greenhouse gas emissions
Keywords:	Alcohol-to-Jet CORSIA Mudança no uso da terra
Type of Material:	Artigo em anais e proceedings
Access:	openAccess
Appears in Collections:	Artigo em anais de congresso (CNPMA)