Título:	Modeling Climate Change Impacts on a Socioeconomically Vital Plant: The Case of Comanthera elegans (Goldenfoot Flower).
Autoria:	AZEVEDO, M. L. de AMARO, G. C. GORGENS, E. B. PINTO, T. A. A. COELHO, F. de A. MENDES, D. S. CARDOSO, J. F. SILVA, R. S. da SHABANI , F.
Afiliação:	MARIA LUIZA DE AZEVEDO, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF JEQUITINHONHA AND MUCURI VALLEYS; GEORGE CORREA AMARO, CPAF-RR; ERIC BASTOS GORGENS, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF JEQUITINHONHA AND MUCURI VALLEYS; THIAGO ALMEIDA ANDRADE PINTO, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF JEQUITINHONHA AND MUCURI VALLEYS; FERNANDA DE AGUIAR COELHO, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF JEQUITINHONHA AND MUCURI VALLEYS; DÉBORA SAMPAIO MENDES, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF JEQUITINHONHA AND MUCURI VALLEYS; JULIANA FONSECA CARDOSO, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF JEQUITINHONHA AND MUCURI VALLEYS; RICARDO SIQUEIRA DA SILVA, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF JEQUITINHONHA AND MUCURI VALLEYS; FARZIN SHABANI, QATAR UNIVERSITY.
Ano de publicação:	2026
Referência:	Ecology and Evolution, v. 16, e72031, 2026.
Conteúdo:	Comanthera elegans is a threatened, endemic species of the campos rupestres of the Espinhaço Mountain Range—a region rec- ognized as a biodiversity hotspot—and has great ecological and societal relevance to local traditional communities. Despite the importance of this species in these systems, the effects of climate change on its distribution remain relatively unknown. We employed the MaxEnt algorithm to model the current potential geographic distribution and the habitat suitability of this species under future climate scenarios to address this knowledge gap. We considered the SSP2- 4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, based on four global climate models (MRI-ESM2- 0, MIROC6, EC-Earth3-Veg, and CMCC-ESM2). The model exhibited high performance, indicating a strong affinity of the species for environments with high rainfall seasonality and mild temperatures. Our models predict a substantial loss of suitable habitat for C. elegans under scenarios of future climate change, particularly under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, where high-suitability areas could be reduced by as much as 95% by 2060. Our results high- light the need for the implementation of conservation actions, including the expansion or creation of protected areas in climate refugia, alongside efforts to promote the development of cultivation techniques and regulations on harvesting practices, in order to mitigate the species' vulnerability to climate change.
NAL Thesaurus:	Agricultural conservation practice
Palavras-chave:	Everlasting flowers MaxEnt Species distribution models
Tipo do material:	Artigo de periódico
Acesso:	openAccess
Aparece nas coleções:	Artigo em periódico indexado (CPAF-RR)