Título:	Carbon stock uncertainties in assessing sugarcane CO2 emissions from direct land-use change.
Autoria:	BATISTA, A. M. GOMES, L. E. PAZIANOTTO, R. A. A. AMARAL, D. R. do MENDONÇA, G. D. de RAMOS, N. P. FOLEGATTI, M. I. da S. NOVAES, R. M. L.
Afiliação:	A. M. BATISTA; L. E. GOMES; R. A. A. PAZIANOTTO; D. R. do AMARAL; G. D. de MENDONÇA; N. P. RAMOS; M. I. da S. FOLEGATTI; R. M. L. NOVAES.
Ano de publicação:	2025
Referência:	In: THE BRAZILIAN BIOENERGY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND IEA BIOENERGY CONFERENCE, 10., 2024, São Paulo. Proceedings... São Paulo: Sociedade de Bioenergia, 2024. Ref. E-13.
Páginas:	p. 114.
Conteúdo:	Direct land-use change (DLUC) assessment is crucial for evaluating bioenerg’s carbon footprint. Given the importance of sugarcane as a global bioenergy feedstock, accurate DLUC estimation is essential for reliable decarbonization impact assessments. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of accounting for uncertainties on carbon stocks and DLUC-related CO2 emissions from sugarcane production in Brazil. Using IPCC guidelines, Tier 1 and Tier 2 data, and the BRLUC method, average values were estimated, and uncertainties were propagated using Monte Carlo approach, with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Uncertainties in carbon stocks were assessed at the microregional level, while emissions were assessed at the national and state levels. The average uncertainty of sugarcane carbon stocks (soil plus biomass) at the national level was 21%, ranging from 12% to 49% among the microregions of Brazil. Considering a moderate level of degradation for all pastures, the average CO2 balance of sugarcane DLUC was -0.4 tCO2 ha-1 at the national level, with CI ranging from removals to emissions (-1.7 to 0.8 tCO2 ha-1). At the state level, similar patterns emerged, but 14 of 18 states had wider CI (e.g., Maranhão, -0.3 to 5.9 tCO2 ha-1). Only in Piauí, the CI did not range from removals to emissions (0.0 to 17.7 tCO2 ha-1). Additionally, uncertainties associated with the level of pasture degradation had an important effect. Assuming the level of pasture degradation in 2003 (20 years ago), the average CO2 balance from sugarcane DLUC was -0.9 tCO2 ha-1 (CI: -2.2 to 0.5 tCO2 ha-1). Lastly, our findings underscore the critical role of uncertainty in DLUC assessments and the need for further research to reduce them. In the case of sugarcane, they may be critical to determine if it acts as a carbon sink or source in Brazil. To this end, DLUC estimates should prioritize farm-level assessments and Tier 2 or Tier 3 data whenever possible.
Thesagro:	Bioenergia
NAL Thesaurus:	Carbon sequestration Sugarcane Bioenergy
Palavras-chave:	Bioenergy sustainability DLUC Soil and biomass carbon stock
Tipo do material:	Resumo em anais e proceedings
Acesso:	openAccess
Aparece nas coleções:	Resumo em anais de congresso (CNPMA)