Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem: http://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1185394
Registro completo de metadatos
Campo DCValorLengua/Idioma
dc.contributor.authorSILVA, L. A. P. da
dc.contributor.authorSOUZA, C. M. P. de
dc.contributor.authorSANO, E. E.
dc.contributor.authorPARREIRAS, T. C.
dc.contributor.authorBOLFE, E. L.
dc.contributor.authorSOUZA, B. I.
dc.contributor.authorSOUZA, R. S.
dc.contributor.authorLEITE, M. E.
dc.contributor.authorESPÍRITO-SANTO, M. M.
dc.contributor.authorCHAGAS-REIS, C. C. das
dc.contributor.authorSILVA, I. C. da
dc.contributor.authorSENA-SOUZA, J. P.
dc.contributor.authorSILVA, C. R. da
dc.date.accessioned2026-03-13T17:49:16Z-
dc.date.available2026-03-13T17:49:16Z-
dc.date.created2026-03-13
dc.date.issued2026
dc.identifier.citationRemote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 2026.
dc.identifier.issn2352-9385
dc.identifier.urihttp://www.alice.cnptia.embrapa.br/alice/handle/doc/1185394-
dc.descriptionAridification driven by future climate change is expected to significantly change vegetation vigor in global drylands. However, its impacts on the Brazilian semiarid region, one of the world most populous and biodiverse drylands, remains poorly understood. In this study, we employed the Random Forest (RF) model trained with historical edaphoclimatic data to predict changes in vegetation vigor under future climatic scenarios (2061–2080), defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), including an optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6) and a pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). Model performance was satisfactorily, with the Holdout Test exhibiting R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 0.02, and MAE = 0.02. Seasonal forests are projected to face a decline in greenness (SSP1-2.6 = down to −3.23% and SSP5-8.5 = −7.23%). Similarly, ombrophilous forests are expected to lose between -0.72% and -6.04% in vegetative vigor in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Despite its natural adaptation to water deficit conditions, the Caatinga biome is also expected to show a significant decrease in vegetation vigor (−2.90% to −3.40%). Ecotonal zones are also projected to lose vegetative vigor (−2.08% to −4.31%). In contrast, savanna formations are expected to undergo a greening trend (+0.78%). Our results provide valuable insights for environmental planning and management, highlighting the most vulnerable vegetation types to future climate-induced aridification.
dc.language.isoeng
dc.rightsopenAccess
dc.subjectTerras áridas
dc.subjectAgrofloresta aleatória
dc.subjectÍndice de vegetação
dc.subjectDrylands
dc.subjectRandom forest
dc.subjectBrowning
dc.titleClimate change-driven aridity threatens vegetation vigor in the Brazilian semiarid region.
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
dc.subject.thesagroMudança Climática
dc.subject.thesagroEsverdeamento
dc.subject.thesagroEscurecimento
dc.subject.nalthesaurusNormalized difference vegetation index
dc.subject.nalthesaurusClimate change
dc.subject.nalthesaurusDegreening
dc.description.notesOn-line first.
riaa.ainfo.id1185394
riaa.ainfo.lastupdate2026-03-13
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2026.101972
dc.contributor.institutionLUCAS AUGUSTO PEREIRA DA SILVA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DA PARAÍBA; CRISTIANO MARCELO PEREIRA DE SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO VALE DO SÃO FRANCISCO; EDSON EYJI SANO, CPAC; TAYA CRISTO PARREIRAS, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS; EDSON LUIS BOLFE, CNPTIA; BARTOLOMEU ISRAEL SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DA PARAÍBA; RAMON SANTOS SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DA PARAÍBA; MARCOS ESDRAS LEITE, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE MONTES CLAROS; MÁRIO MARCOS ESPÍRITO-SANTO, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE MONTES CLAROS; CAROLINA CABRAL DAS CHAGAS-REIS, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS; IVANILDO COSTA DA SILVA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DA PARAÍBA; JOÃO PAULO SENA-SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE MONTES CLAROS; CLAUDIONOR RIBEIRO DA SILVA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE UBERLÂNDIA.
Aparece en las colecciones:Artigo em periódico indexado (CPAC)

Ficheros en este ítem:
Fichero Descripción TamañoFormato 
Artigo-Climate-change-driven-aridity.pdf2,03 MBAdobe PDFVista previa
Visualizar/Abrir
Mostrar el registro sencillo del ítem

FacebookTwitterDeliciousLinkedInGoogle BookmarksMySpace