Título:	Climate change-driven aridity threatens vegetation vigor in the Brazilian semiarid region.
Autoria:	SILVA, L. A. P. da SOUZA, C. M. P. de SANO, E. E. PARREIRAS, T. C. BOLFE, E. L. SOUZA, B. I. SOUZA, R. S. LEITE, M. E. ESPÍRITO-SANTO, M. M. CHAGAS-REIS, C. C. das SILVA, I. C. da SENA-SOUZA, J. P. SILVA, C. R. da
Afiliação:	LUCAS AUGUSTO PEREIRA DA SILVA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DA PARAÍBA; CRISTIANO MARCELO PEREIRA DE SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO VALE DO SÃO FRANCISCO; EDSON EYJI SANO, CPAC; TAYA CRISTO PARREIRAS, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS; EDSON LUIS BOLFE, CNPTIA; BARTOLOMEU ISRAEL SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DA PARAÍBA; RAMON SANTOS SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DA PARAÍBA; MARCOS ESDRAS LEITE, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE MONTES CLAROS; MÁRIO MARCOS ESPÍRITO-SANTO, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE MONTES CLAROS; CAROLINA CABRAL DAS CHAGAS-REIS, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS; IVANILDO COSTA DA SILVA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DA PARAÍBA; JOÃO PAULO SENA-SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE MONTES CLAROS; CLAUDIONOR RIBEIRO DA SILVA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE UBERLÂNDIA.
Ano de publicação:	2026
Referência:	Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 2026.
Conteúdo:	Aridification driven by future climate change is expected to significantly change vegetation vigor in global drylands. However, its impacts on the Brazilian semiarid region, one of the world most populous and biodiverse drylands, remains poorly understood. In this study, we employed the Random Forest (RF) model trained with historical edaphoclimatic data to predict changes in vegetation vigor under future climatic scenarios (2061–2080), defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), including an optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6) and a pessimistic scenario (SSP5-8.5). Model performance was satisfactorily, with the Holdout Test exhibiting R2 = 0.93, RMSE = 0.02, and MAE = 0.02. Seasonal forests are projected to face a decline in greenness (SSP1-2.6 = down to −3.23% and SSP5-8.5 = −7.23%). Similarly, ombrophilous forests are expected to lose between -0.72% and -6.04% in vegetative vigor in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Despite its natural adaptation to water deficit conditions, the Caatinga biome is also expected to show a significant decrease in vegetation vigor (−2.90% to −3.40%). Ecotonal zones are also projected to lose vegetative vigor (−2.08% to −4.31%). In contrast, savanna formations are expected to undergo a greening trend (+0.78%). Our results provide valuable insights for environmental planning and management, highlighting the most vulnerable vegetation types to future climate-induced aridification.
Thesagro:	Mudança Climática Esverdeamento Escurecimento
NAL Thesaurus:	Normalized difference vegetation index Climate change Degreening
Palavras-chave:	Terras áridas Agrofloresta aleatória Índice de vegetação Drylands Random forest Browning
ISSN:	2352-9385
Digital Object Identifier:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2026.101972
Notas:	On-line first.
Tipo do material:	Artigo de periódico
Acesso:	openAccess
Aparece nas coleções:	Artigo em periódico indexado (CPAC)