Título:	A modeling framework to assess climate vulnerability and future distributions of tropical tree species: a case study on Brazilian ipês.
Autor:	BORBA, F. de C. BEZERRA, C. de S. TOMAZ, J. S. MARQUES, M. J. CAPUCHO, H. L. V. SOUZA, S. F. de FERREYRA RAMOS, S. L. LOPES, R. MENESES, C. H. S. G. de LOPES, M. T. G.
Afiliación:	FÁBIO DE CASTRO BORBA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO AMAZONAS; CAROLINE DE SOUZA BEZERRA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO AMAZONAS; JENNIFER SOUZA TOMAZ, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO AMAZONAS; MARIA JOSÉ MARQUES, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO AMAZONAS; HELINARA LAIS VIEIRA CAPUCHO, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO AMAZONAS; SAMUEL FREITAS DE SOUZA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO AMAZONAS; SANTIAGO LINORIO FERREYRA RAMOS, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO AMAZONAS; RICARDO LOPES, CPAA; CARLOS HENRIQUE SALVINO GADELHA DE MENESES, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DA PARAÍBA; MARIA TERESA GOMES LOPES, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO AMAZONAS.
Año:	2026
Referencia:	Bosque, v. 47, e4709, 2026.
Descripción:	Assessing climate vulnerability of tropical trees requires ecological niche modeling frameworks capable of integrating multiple sources of uncertainty. Here, we present an integrated modeling approach that combines climatic, edaphic, and topographic predictors, dimensionality reduction, multi-algorithm calibration, and ensemble forecasting to evaluate future environmental suitability under climate change. Using two Brazilian Handroanthus species as a case study, occurrence data were spatially filtered, predictors were summarized through principal component analysis, and models were built using six algorithms with performance-weighted consensus projections. Future distributions were projected for three time periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) under intermediate and high emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The framework showed high predictive reliability and revealed contrasting vulnerability patterns, including severe suitability losses for one species and greater stability for the other across phytogeographic domains. Beyond species-specific outcomes, results demonstrate how integrated Ecologial Niche Modeling (ENM) frameworks can identify climate-driven risk gradients and support climate-informed conservation, forest management, and territorial planning in tropical regions.
Thesagro:	Ipê
NAL Thesaurus:	Climate change Forest resources
Palabras clave:	Handroanthus spp
DOI:	10.4206/Bosque.e4709
Tipo de Material:	Artigo de periódico
Acceso:	openAccess
Aparece en las colecciones:	Artigo em periódico indexado (CPAA)