Title:	Climate change impacts and seasonality changes on beef cattle in Brazil.
Authors:	FERREIRA, N. C. R. FERREIRA, L. N. ROSA, D. R. DA ANDRADE, R. R.
Affiliation:	NICOLE COSTA RESENDE FERREIRA, CNPM; LEONARDO NASCIMENTO FERREIRA, UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL DE CAMPINAS; DELANE RIBAS DA ROSA, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE GOIÁS; RAFAELLA RESENDE ANDRADE, UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE GOIÁS.
Date Issued:	2026
Citation:	Regional Environmental Change, v. 26, n. 64, 2026.
Pages:	15 p.
Description:	Abstract: Climate change, global warming, and natural resource depletion pose significant challenges to global beef cattle farming, with animal heat stress emerging as a widespread limitation. This is particularly critical in Brazil, a major global beef pro ducer and exporter that supplies a substantial portion of the world's food. This study investigated the impact of seasonality changes on beef cattle welfare under various climate change scenarios, using the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI). Our analysis employed CMIP6 ensemble models for historical data and future projections, with a specific focus on the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The research focused on Brazil's most productive cattle farming regions. Historically, the North and Mid-West regions exhibited the highest THI values, mostly between September and December. Projections show low values of THI anomaly in the short-term (2021–2040). However, the medium-term (2041–2060) reveals a significant increase in THI anomalies in the Mid-West and North, with some regions approaching 30 days per month of extreme THI (values > 94). The long-term (2061–2080) represents the worst-case scenario, with high THI anomalies persisting year-round across most of Brazil. States like Acre, Amazonas, Goiás, Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia are projected to experience 28–31 days per month of extreme THI during critical periods (September-December), while Paraná remains relatively low. The findings underscore an urgent need for robust adaptation strategies, including genetic improvement, integrated crop-livestock systems, and precision livestock farming technologies, alongside national mitigation efforts, to ensure the long-term viability and sustainability of Brazilian beef production.
NAL Thesaurus:	Animal welfare Heat stress Livestock Food security
Keywords:	Ruminant animals Temperature-humidity index
ISSN:	1436-378X
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02550-w
Type of Material:	Artigo de periódico
Access:	openAccess
Appears in Collections:	Artigo em periódico indexado (CNPM)